Key takeaways from the GCP Q2 2025 NAV update webinar

5 minute read

Contributors

Philip Kent

CEO, Member of the Investment Committee

Max Gilbert

Investment Director

In this webinar, focused on GCP Infrastructure Investments Limited NAV as at 30 June 2025, investment advisers Philip Kent and Max Gilbert give a brief introduction to the Company before focusing on the capital allocation programme. They also give an update on the portfolio investments before commenting on some of the market developments during the period.

You can watch the replay here.

Key takeaways:

About GCP Infrastructure Investments Limited

  1. The Company occupies unique white space in a crowded peer group by focusing on social and environmental infrastructure debt, unlike peers who target equity or more economic infrastructure.
  2. Investments benefit from public-sector backed cash flows via long-dated revenue models, aligning with UK national infrastructure priorities.
  3. GCP has a market cap of £622 million, NAV of £864 million, and £903 million in investment fair value. As of June 2025 total return since IPO stands at 182% on a NAV basis, highlighting long-term value creation[1].
  4. The Company has delivered a stable, sustainable dividend for 15 years, underpinned by a resilient, diverse, and mostly operational portfolio, with IPO subscriptions returned through aggregate dividends paid in 2024.
  5. Diversification of revenue streams is key, for example within the Company’s renewables exposure low wind and hydro generation has been offset with positive solar performance in recent quarters.
  6. The Company’s annualised loss ratio is just 0.46%[2], significantly lower than Moody’s benchmark of 2.2% for similar credit instruments.
  7. While ESG isn’t a formal objective of the Company, social and environmental impact is inherent in our infrastructure investments, with key ESG data points measured and reported.
  8. The company IPO’d on 22nd July 2010, raising over £40 million at launch. Original investments in PFI/PPP subordinated debt, especially in healthcare, leisure, and education, remain core to the portfolio.
  9. GCP was an early investor in UK solar, wind, biomass, and social housing, often entering markets before they matured.
  10. Early market entry has allowed the Company to capture higher risk-adjusted returns, before these sectors become core and competition increases, compressing yields.

Capital allocation goals

  1. As set out in December 2023, the capital allocation policy set out to recycling £150 million of capital, aiming to reduce leverage, return at least £50 million to shareholders, and rebalance the portfolio away from equity-like exposure, reducing merchant power price exposure and supported living sectors).
  2. Progress to date includes c.£80 million of realisations (halfway to the £150 million target) on average at NAV. Net debt has been reduced to c.£10 million from £104 million over the programme. To date. £18.3 million in share buybacks were completed (~25 million shares in total), with 6.3m shares bought back during the quarter.
  3. Post-quarter end proceeds were received from a settlement related to solar audits, with this completing in line with NAV.
  4. £250 million pipeline of further realisation opportunities focused on reducing exposure to merchant electricity prices and exiting supported living.
  5. Post-capital allocation, GCP will weigh share buybacks vs. new investments, based on market valuation vs. share price.

Strategic themes & policy context

  1. The UK government plans record public infrastructure spending over the next 10 years of £725 billion with a focus on clean energy, transport, and digital infrastructure. The private sector is expected to invest £50bn/year.
  2. CFD and RAB models remain the government’s preferred tools:
  • Contract for Difference (CFD): Key support model for renewables and now hydrogen and carbon capture.
  • Regulated Asset Base (RAB): Used for large infrastructure like Sizewell C, Thames Tideway, and Heathrow T5.

3. Changes to CFD contract terms (now 20 years vs 15) could stimulate significant new capacity, key for Net Zero by 2030.

4. PFI/PPP was mentioned in the new infrastructure strategy however this is expected to apply only to projects with existing revenue models (e.g., toll roads), not new ones relying on government payments.

5. GCP is closely watching CFD developments and broader infrastructure funding, evaluating where future reinvestment opportunities may align with its risk-return focus.


[1]
As at 30 June 2025

[2] Calculated as total aggregate downward revaluations divided by total invested since IPO expressed as a time weighted annual percentage, as at 31 March 2025

Important Information

This article has been prepared by Gravis Capital Management Limited (the "Investment Adviser“ or “Gravis”) and is for information purposes only. It is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Any recipients of this article outside the UK should inform themselves of and observe any applicable legal or regulatory requirements in their jurisdiction and are treated as having represented that they are able to receive this article without contravention of any law or regulation in the jurisdiction in which they reside or conduct business.

This article should not be considered as a recommendation, invitation or inducement that any investor should subscribe for, dispose of or purchase any such securities or enter into any other transaction in the GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd (the “Company”) or any other fund affiliated with Gravis.  The merits and suitability of any investment action in relation to securities should be considered carefully and involve, among other things, an assessment of the legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, financial, credit and other related aspects of such securities.

No undertaking, representation, warranty or other assurance, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company, the Investment Adviser or any of their respective directors, officers, partners, employees, agents or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this article and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions or for any errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence or otherwise for any other communication written or otherwise. In addition, neither the Company or the Investment Adviser undertake any obligation to update or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent. The information in this article is subject to updating, completion, revision, further verification and amendment without notice.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Gravis Capital Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; registered in England and Wales No: 10471852 and its principal place of business is 24 Savile Row, London W1S 2ES.

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