In this webinar, Phil Kent, Robyn MacHugh and Cameron Gardner provide an update on GCP Infrastructure Investments Limited, following the announcement of the Company’s NAV as at 31 December 2025.
You can watch the webinar replay here:
GCP Infrastructure Investments Limited Q4 2025 NAV update webinar
Capital allocation programme remains the central focus
- Capital recycling continues to be the Company’s primary strategic priority and has been its main focus for the past two years.
- Of the £150m of accelerated realisations originally committed to, the recently announced supported social housing disposal which has exchanged and is expected to complete in March, subject to financing conditions, will take that up to £130m.
- Net debt stood at approximately £14m at 31 December 2025 and has since reduced further to around £8m.
- The Company has returned just under £37m of capital to shareholders to date, against a stated minimum target of £50m.
- Management acknowledged that progress has been slower than originally anticipated but emphasised that execution has remained consistent with the stated plan.
Further disposals expected to take realisations beyond £150m
- A broader pipeline of approximately £200m of potential realisations has been identified and is being actively progressed.
- In the near term, the Company is targeting a further c.£50m of realisations by the end of Q1 or early Q2, primarily from the solar sector.
- This includes a proposed refinancing expected to generate £40–45m through the introduction of debt into an existing solar portfolio.
- All transactions referenced are expected to complete at or around NAV, supporting management’s view that NAV is a more appropriate valuation reference than the share price.
Portfolio repositioning underway
- The Company is continuing to exit the supported social housing sector, with exposure expected to reduce from c.15% to around 10% following completion of the most recent transaction, with further reductions planned.
- Equity-like exposures are also being reduced, including positions within onshore wind, anaerobic digestion and biomass.
- Following these changes, the portfolio’s weighted average life is expected to reduce from around 11 years to approximately eight years.
- The overall portfolio yield is expected to increase, reflecting the exit from lower-yielding supported living investments.
Portfolio performance and structure
- As at 31 December 2025, the portfolio was valued at just over £850m and comprised 47 loans.
- Sector exposure was split between PFI/PPP (28%), supported living (15%) and renewable energy (57%).
- The weighted average annualised portfolio yield was approximately 8%, with construction exposure remaining at zero.
- Just under half of the portfolio benefits from some form of inflation protection.
- Forecast principal receipts are expected to total approximately £240m over the next four years (assuming no reinvestment), and management highlighted that dividend payments remain well covered from a total cash flow perspective.
NAV movement driven by policy and power price assumptions
- Unaudited NAV per share declined by 1.13p during the quarter.
- The principal drivers were the government’s decision to amend indexation for Renewables Obligation buyout prices and Feed-in Tariffs to CPI from April 2026, and lower electricity price assumptions.
- Lower short-term futures prices and revised long-term forecasts from the Company’s external consultant reduced NAV by approximately 0.53p per share.
- These impacts were partially offset by higher actual generation across the renewables portfolio and the accretive effect of share buybacks, with 1.7m shares repurchased during the period.
Renewables valuation discipline highlighted
- Management reiterated that the Company’s solar assets are valued at a discount of around 20% on an enterprise value per megawatt basis compared with the average of other listed solar funds.
- Differences were attributed to more conservative assumptions around power price forecasts, asset lives, inflation, capital expenditure and tax treatment.
- The Company continues to emphasise transparency around valuation methodology and underlying assumptions.
Policy environment remains supportive despite delivery risks
- The UK government’s latest Contracts for Difference auction rounds demonstrated continued support for renewable generation, including record levels of solar capacity procured.
- One of the Company’s development assets, currently valued at zero, formed part of a successful project in the most recent auction and is included within the identified disposal pipeline.
- Management noted ongoing uncertainty around grid connection capacity and timing, which may challenge delivery of the government’s 2030 targets, but emphasised that the long-term direction of policy support remains clear.
Enhanced disclosure and shareholder engagement
- A new investor portal has been launched, providing loan-by-loan transparency and asset-level performance data.
- More than 150 investors have registered since launch, with positive feedback reported.
- Shareholder engagement is ongoing ahead of the Capital Markets Day scheduled for February, which will focus on the next phase of the Company’s strategy following completion of the current capital allocation programme.
Important Information
This article has been prepared by Gravis Capital Management Limited (the "Investment Adviser“ or “Gravis”) and is for information purposes only. It is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Any recipients of this article outside the UK should inform themselves of and observe any applicable legal or regulatory requirements in their jurisdiction and are treated as having represented that they are able to receive this article without contravention of any law or regulation in the jurisdiction in which they reside or conduct business.
This article should not be considered as a recommendation, invitation or inducement that any investor should subscribe for, dispose of or purchase any such securities or enter into any other transaction in the GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd (the “Company”) or any other fund affiliated with Gravis. The merits and suitability of any investment action in relation to securities should be considered carefully and involve, among other things, an assessment of the legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, financial, credit and other related aspects of such securities.
No undertaking, representation, warranty or other assurance, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company, the Investment Adviser or any of their respective directors, officers, partners, employees, agents or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this article and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of them for any such information or opinions or for any errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence or otherwise for any other communication written or otherwise. In addition, neither the Company or the Investment Adviser undertake any obligation to update or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent. The information in this article is subject to updating, completion, revision, further verification and amendment without notice.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Gravis Capital Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; registered in England and Wales No: 10471852 and its principal place of business is 24 Savile Row, London W1S 2ES.